Bradford’s proposed Southern Gateway

The Southern Gateway.

For further information see: https://www.southerngateway.co.uk/

At the council’s first meeting with newly elected and existing councillors, Bradford Council’s CEO and Direct of Place told councillors that the Southern Gateway could deliver an extra £7 billion in GDP to Bradford. Let’s examine that claim given the detail in the above.

The Southern Gateway regeneration site will contribute:

1. 5,000 new homes.
2. 23,000 jobs.
3. £1.12 billion annual GVA uplift.
4. 440,000 square metres of new office space.

Bradford is one of the UK’s youngest cities, with huge untapped potential to drive regional and national growth. The Bradford Rail Programme will be a gamechanger, improving connectivity, creating jobs, and opening up new opportunities for businesses. With a new rail station, Bradford will have better access to supply chains, a larger labour force, and a more connected economy. It will also support the growth of Bradford’s key sectors, from advanced manufacturing to digital and professional services creating the conditions for higher productivity and long-term economic success.

The Government’s Industrial Strategy highlights the need for high-quality tansport to drive growth. By connecting West Yorkshire and Manchester, this new rail infrastructure will boost tourism, attract investment, and strengthen Bradford’s role as a key link between the North and the rest of the UK.

Facts about Bradford.

• Commute ratio – Bradford features a net outflow of commuters, with a ratio showing slightly more residents traveling out for work than coming in. The district’s primary labour dynamic involves a massive, heavy flow to Leeds—around 30,000 to 45,000 daily trips—with roughly 70% of these commuters traveling by car due to slower, existing rail networks. (Source BDMC)
• Local Employment: Roughly 70% of Bradford District residents both live and work within the district. (Source BDMC)
• The Leeds-Bradford Flow: This is one of the highest volume inter-city commuter flows in the UK.

Rail.

The current train journey to Leeds Takes between 20 and 25 minutes. That journey time is set to reduce to 12 minute, a 13 minute time saving.

Homes and jobs.

An additional 5,000 homes are to be delivered. The average household size in Bradford is approximately 2.6 people per household, slightly higher than the England and Wales national average of 2.4.

• 5,000 homes equates to 13,000 people, many of whom will be of school age if we consider that the district has one of the youngest and most diverse populations. See https://www.bradford.gov.uk/media/0l2c2cnf/2021-census-ward-level-data-for-population-ethnicity-religion-and-household-composition.pdf
• 23,000 new jobs, that’s 10,000 to local people and a net inflow of 18,300. Remember the commute ratio has a 5,300 net outflow, which is the reverse of historical net inflow in older census data.
• GVA in 2023 stood at £11.745 billion, for a population of 559,100. GVA per capita stood at £21,006. If GVA per capita stood at the same rate another 23,000 people in employment would add 23,000 x £21,006 = £483,160,436 (roughly £0.5 billion) to Bradford’s GVA.
• A £1.12 billion uplift in GVA (Gross Value Added). This yields a £1.25 – £1.29 Billion increase in GDP, that’s £5.71 billion lower than the figure given to councillors, why is that?
  • The Calculation (Courtesy of the ONS): GDP = GVA +Taxes on products – Subsidies on products.
• 440,000 Square metres of office space.  I’m not going to elaborate on office space, rather steer the reader to my current article.

Now in the interest of clarity in this matter, I welcome the opportunity and the ambition, it’s just that I have heard all these arguments before. Consequently, applying common sense and lessons learned such as those mentioned in previous articles. Then there’s the following Bradford Core City Analysis and Benchmarking report. Many of the answers affecting the districts economy are contained therein, however, these facts do not appear front of mind or at least considered.

The reader might believe that I’m anti-Bradford, that’s not so, cut me in two and it would say Bradford in the cross-section. The fact is that as Economic Shadow Portfolio Holder I have spent the last 18-months engaging and meeting with business of all sizes in my own time and at my own expense. I believe that to deliver the changes which Bradford so urgently needs, you must do the spade work to understand why the Bradford district is not performing in economic terms. There are of course many factors, and travel times are not top of that list.

Look at what happens elsewhere, there is no silver bullet.

Is a new mainline station going to make such a big difference, I’m not so sure, and that’s on the basis of research.

• Wakefield is on the mainline to London, so why is its economy smaller than that of Bradford? It has excellent transport connectivity, perhaps the reason that its economy is largely based on transport logistics. A single source of employment like this can lead to significant issues should logistics change or become outdated.
• Doncaster is on the London and East Coast mainlines and here again has an economy that’s much smaller than that of Bradford. Doncaster as one of least prosperous place to live in the UK.

Food for thought…

Gross Value Added.

To reach the core cities’ average job density of 0.99 jobs per working-age resident (similar to Leeds and Nottingham), Bradford would need to increase its current level by 0.34 points. This equates to around 16,000 additional jobs per year, with alternative scenarios suggesting smaller annual increases ranging from 9,900 to 16,600 (or 99,000 to 166,000 over 10 years). These figures reflect a workplace-based measure, meaning they count jobs located in Bradford, regardless of where workers live.

Historically, Bradford’s job density has been low. Its current level of 0.65 is the lowest in the past decade, with the figure generally remaining below 0.71. Some improvements were observed between 2015 and 2017, but the trend has been largely downward since then. Looking ahead, if the current trend continues, job density is expected to fall below 0.60 as the working-age population grows. Given that job growth has been very limited in recent years, achieving the lowest core city benchmark represents the most appropriate trajectory for Bradford. Even so, reaching this level would still require a significant acceleration, well above historic performance.

Note: This assumes that the working-age population will grow to meet the lowest target of 65%. Based on the ONS forecast of 63% by 2035, achieving the lowest core cities’ job density value of 0.83 would require an additional 76,000 jobs.

Increasing Productivity Levels

To reach the average productivity in core cities (£37.8 GVA per hour worked, similar to Liverpool), Bradford would need a 13% increase in its current productivity levels by 2035. This equates to an annual productivity growth of 1.2% CAGR, while the most conservative scenario assumes only 0.1% CAGR.